Gurarie's Reaserch

Agent based modeling of diabetes and its complications in heterogeneous populations

I.     Long term goals


A.   Develop and implement in-host models of basic human physiology and metabolism with nutritional inputs, physical activity, diagnostics and interventions

B.   Calibrate such models for different individuals and stages of disease, different population groups (age, gender, behavior), using physiological data, clinical trials, and population surveys

C.   \xA0Develop dynamic models of slow disease progression and associated comorbidities (CVD, hypertension, Metabolic Syndrome), within typical health care setup and procedures

D.   \xA0Apply models of parts (i) \x96 (iii) for \xA0Agent-Based Communities (ABC) adopted for specific groups, population strata, and heterogeneous communities

E.   Explore long term predictions, control-intervention, cost-benefit analysis

II.   Agent level models

\xB7         Basic physiology and metabolism:\xA0 Metabolites (glucose, fats, glycogen); Hormones (insulin, glucogon et al)

\xB7         Anatomy: digestive system, muscles, pancreas, liver, peripheral blood; a hormone controlling glucose utilization and storage/release.

\xB7         Symptoms and diagnostics: OGT, FPG, FSI, HbA1c, HDL, cholesterol, Tg

\xB7         Typical interventions/treatment: drugs , diet exercise

\xB7         Complications and Comorbidities: (CVD,\xA0 hypertension, Metabolic syndrome)

\xB7         Risk factors for diabetes and associated complications

\xB7         treatment: prognosis, healthcare costs

III. \xA0Methodology, data and calibration procedures

\xB7         Calibration and validation on different levels and scales

\xB7         Basic physiology on fast (daily) time scales

\xB7         combinations of biological variables (glucose and insulin on fast and slow time scale) from physiological data.

\xB7         Calibrate physiology and development/progression of conditions with clinical data from medical records for individuals.

IV.Communities (ABC)

\xB7         Heterogeneous populations stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, behavior (SES)

\xB7         Calibration and validation on community level

\xB7         Prediction and control

V.  Within-host physiology: glycemic feedback control systems (preliminary models and results)

Fast models

Slow models

VI. Selected referencees