Updates: As we've moved to online lectures, there are canvas quizzes associated to each lecture. These quizzes will count for a total of 2.5% of the course grade; each of the five highest hour-long quiz scores will now be worth 14.5% of the total course grade.
Instructor: Elizabeth Meckes
Office: Yost 208
Phone: 368-5015
Email: ese3 [at] cwru.edu
Office Hours: MWF, 2-3, or by appointment.
Textbook: Introduction to Probability by Anderson, Seppäläinen and Valkó
Topics and rough schedule: The schedule will be roughly as follows:
| Topics | Book chapters | Weeks |
|---|---|---|
| Random outcomes and the rules of probability Conditional probability and independence |
1,2 | 1-3 |
| Random variables | 3 | 4 |
| Approximations of the binomial distribution | 4 | 5-6 |
| Transformations of random variables Joint distributions |
5,6 | 7-8 |
| Sums and symmetry | 7 | 9 |
| Expectation and variance | 8 | 10-11 |
| Limit theorems | 9 | 12-13 |
| Conditional distributions | 10 | 14 |
In addition to attending the lectures, you should be reading the text book since there won't be time to discuss all the material in class.
Electronics in class: taking notes on a tablet is okay, but otherwise, please leave electronics (laptops, phones, whatever) turned off and put away during class. It's hard to be fully engaged in lecture while you're simultaneously keeping track of what's going on on the internet.
Homework Problems: How much you work on the homework problems is probably the single biggest factor in determining how much you get out of the course. If you are having trouble with the problems, please come ask for help; you will learn much more (and probably get a rather better grade) if you figure out all of the homework problems, possibly with help in office hours or from your classmates, than if you do them alone when you can and skip the ones you can't.
Each lecture has specific homework problems associated to it, as listed in the chart below. I strongly suggest doing the homework the same day as the corresponding lecture.
Some of the homework is hard on purpose! The way you really learn this stuff is to struggle with it, and to talk about it, with me and your classmates.
Quizzes: There will be six hour-long quizzes throughout the term, on January 29, February 14, March 2, March 27, April 13, and April 27. The quizzes are closed-book and will consist of several problems chosen directly from the assigned homework.
Grading: Your five highest quiz scores are each worth 15% of the course grade, and the final is worth 25%. The lowest quiz score will be dropped.
Expository writing:
I wrote a two-part piece called "The Laws of Probability" for the Girls' Angle Bulletin which gives a useful broad view of some important topics we'll cover this semester.
Part I is in here.
Part II is in here.
A couple articles about learning:
Forget What You Know About Good Study Habits appeared in the Times in Fall 2010. It offers some advice about studying based on current pedagogical research.
Teaching and Human Memory, Part 2 from The Chronicle of Higher Education in December 2011. Its intended audience is professors, but I think it's worth it for students to take a look as well.
| Lecture | Sections(s) | Problems |
|---|---|---|
| M 1/13 | 1.1 | 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 |
| W 1/15 | 1.2 | 1.5, 1.7, 1.21, 1.22 |
| F 1/17 | 1.3, 1.4 | 1.9, 1.10, 1.12, 1.23 |
| W 1/22 | 1.4, 1.5 | 1.13, 1.14, 1.15, 1.25 |
| F 1/24 | 1.5, 1.6 | 1.16, 1.19, 1.32, 1.36 |
| M 1/27 | 2.1 | 2.5, 2.6, 2.7, 2.30 |
| F 1/31 | 2.2 | 2.9, 2.10, 2.11, 2.40 |
| M 2/3 | 2.3 | 2.14, 2.15, 2.18, 2.19, 2.48 |
| W 2/5 | 2.4 | 2.21, 2.22, 2.23, 2.49, 2.55 |
| F 2/7 | 2.5 | 2.26, 2.27, 2.28, 2.78 |
| M 2/10 | 3.1 | 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.19, 3.25 |
| W 2/12 | 3.2 | 3.5, 3.7, 3.44, 3.46, 3.61 |
| M 2/17 | 3.3 | 3.8, 3.9, 3.11, 3.30, 3.37, 3.52 |
| W 2/19 | 3.3, 3.4 | 3.14, 3.15, 3.23, 3.28, 3.31 |
| F 2/21 | 3.4, 3.5 | 3.18, 3.38, 3.48, 3.49, 3.68 |
| M 2/24 | 4.1, 4.2 | 4.2, 4.3, 4.5, 4.16, 4.20, 4.23 |
| W 2/26 | 4.2, 4.3 | 4.6, 4.7, 4.24, 4.26, 4.29 |
| F 2/28 | 4.4 | 4.9, 4.10, 4.30, 4.39, 4.40 |
| W 3/4 | 4.5 | 4.13, 4.14, 4.47, 4.49 |
| F 3/6 | 5.1 | 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.16, 5.18 5.21 |
| W 3/18 | 5.2 | 5.7, 5.8, 5.23, 5.24, 5.30, 5.34 |
| F 3/20 | 6.1 | 6.1, 6.2, 6.4, 6.18, 6.20, 6.21 |
| M 3/23 | 6.2 | 6.6, 6.7, 6.33, 6.37, 6.40 |
| W 3/25 | 6.3 | 6.8, 6.12, 6.28, 6.45 |
| M 3/30 | 6.4 | 6.15, 6.17, 6.49, 6.50, 6.56 |
| W 4/1 | 7.1 | 7.1, 7.2, 7.4, 7.14, 7.15, 7.20 |
| F 4/3 | 4.6, 7.3 | 4.51, 7.10, 7.36 |
| M 4/6 | 8.2 | 8.3, 8.8, 8.24, 8.35, 8.37 |
| W 4/8 | 8.3, 8.4 | 8.11, 8.12, 8.15, 8.41, 8.43, 8.50 |
| F 4/10 | 8.4 | 8.45, 8.52, 8.54 |
| W 4/15 | 9.1, 9.2 | 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.9, 9.10, 9.16 |
| F 4/17 | 9.3 | 9.5, 9.6, 9.17, 9.18 |
| M 4/20 | 10.1 | 10.2, 10.3, 10.15, 10.18, 10.19 |
| W 4/22 | 10.2 | 10.6, 10.7, 10.33, 10.35, 10.38 |
| F 4/24 | 10.3 | 10.8, 10.9, 10.40, 10.45, 10.46 |