Risk-period-cohort method has broad implications for examining processes of change over time in longitudinal studies

Dalton Perzynski Gunzler 2019 PLOS One Paper
PLOS ONE 2019 Gunzler et al.

In epidemiology, gerontology, human development and the social sciences, age-period-cohort (APC) models are used to study the variability in trajectories of change over time. A well-known issue exists in simultaneously identifying age, period and birth cohort effects, namely that the three characteristics comprise a perfectly collinear system. That is, since  age  =  period − cohort , only two of these effects are estimable at a time.


Two CTSC KL2 Scholar alumni, Doug Gunzler and Jarrod Dalton, and their colleagues introduce an alternative framework for considering effects relating to age, period and birth cohort. In particular, instead of directly modeling age in the presence of period and cohort effects, they propose a risk modeling approach to characterize age-related risk (i.e., a hybrid of multiple biological and sociological influences to evaluate phenomena associated with growing older). The properties of this approach, termed risk-period-cohort (RPC), are described in their paper and studied by simulations.

Gunzler DD, Perzynski AT, Dawson NV, Kauffman K, Liu J, Dalton JE (2019) Risk-p…