Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
The most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in early January, but returning to levels below 1.0 since that time. Whether the recent increase represents the beginning of a sustained trend remains to be seen.
Projected Incidence
Daily incidence appears most likely to continue to decline slightly in the coming two weeks, but a non-trivial chance of climbing incidence exists. Continued masking and social distancing will be critical to maintaining downward momentum.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained largely stable at relatively low levels over the last 6 weeks. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.
