Ashtabula County - February 17, 2021

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

The most recent data suggests an Rt rising above 1.0 in early January, but returning to levels below 1.0 until early February, since which time it has twice spiked.  This errati pattern may be an artifact of irregular reporting of cases day-over-day as suggested in the following figure.


Projected Incidence

Given the erratic nature of daily incident cases reported in the last three weeks, estimates for the coming two weeks are somewhat unstable.  The most likely course seems to be a continuation of current incidence levels, but this projection could be an artifact of the above-mentioned single day numbers.


Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained largely stable at relatively low levels over the last 6 weeks, with the exception of two brief spikes in early February.  A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.