Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
The most recent data suggests an Rt climbing above 1.0 in early January, but returning to levels below 1.0 in the weeks following. Whether the sharp increase seen at the end of January represents a sustained pattern remains to be seen.
Daily incidence appears likely to remain near current levels in the coming two weeks, though the potential for climbing incidence is substantial. Continued masking and social distancing will be critical to preventing this increase.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained largely stable at a relatively low level over the last six weeks. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.