Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
The most recent data suggests an Rt spiking above 1.0 twice in February. Rt appears to be on the rise at the end of February. This erratic pattern seen here may be an artifact of irregular reporting of cases day-over-day as suggested in the following figure.
Projected Incidence
Given the erratic nature of daily incident cases reported in the last three weeks, estimates for the coming two weeks are somewhat unstable. The most likely course seems to be an increase in incidence levels.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to be on the rise. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.
