Auglaize County - March 26, 2021

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

After remaining at relatively low levels since early February, Rt appears to be rising.  Whether this will represent a sustained pattern or simply represents fluctuation driven by small numbers remains to be seen.

Projected Incidence

Incidence appears likely to rise in the coming two weeks, though considerable statistical uncertainty exists as to the extent given the relatively small population of the county.

Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained consistently low until recent days.  Whether the recent increase represents the beginning of a consistent pattern remains to be seen.  A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.