Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
The most recent data suggests an Rt averaging around 1.0 since mid-July. The sawtooth pattern is an artifact of the fact that cases are not reported on the weekends.
Projected Incidence
Daily case numbers are expected to continue a gradual increase, with an estimated 25% probability that daily case counts will exceed 250 by late August.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases is estimated to have remained at a level averaging around 0.8-0.9 for the past three weeks. This is substantially above levels seen earlier in the pandemic and is likely attributable to milder cases in vaccinated and younger individuals. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.
