Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
Despite some holiday reporting gaps/lags, the most recent data suggests an Rt which is generally trending downward in January.
Projected Incidence
Because of the reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and project future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers. It is projected that daily case incidence will likely trend lower, reaching a level consistently below 500 by early February if current social contact patterns persist. Continuing to adhere to masking, social distancing, and other mitigation measures remains crucial.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained stable at a relatively low level since the mid-December. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts.
