Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
A series of reporting gaps/lags beginning in mid-November creates some instability in estimates during that period. However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in late November and early December. Significant volatility in estimates remains. Whether the recent increase in Rt signals the beginning of a sustained trend remains to be seen.
Projected Incidence
Because of the significant reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and project future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers. It is highly probable that daily incidence will remain above 1,000 in the near future and increase significantly by the third week in January. Continuing to adhere to masking, social distancing, and other mitigation measures remains crucial.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained stable at a relatively low level since mid-December. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts.
