Erie County - April 28, 2021

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

Rt appears to have remained below 1.0 for the past 6 weeks.

Projected Incidence

Daily case numbers will most likely decline in the coming 2 weeks, though a significant chance of increase remains.  Continued masking and social distancing will be critical to preventing large increases.

Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have risen steadily over the past 6 weeks to moderately elevated levels.  A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.