Erie County - April 8, 2021

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

Rt appears to remain below 1.0, however, this estimate is considered somewhat unreliable given sporadic patterns of reported cases in the county and small population size.

 

Projected Incidence

Incidence appears most likely to decline slightly, but there is some uncertainty given sporadic patterns of reported cases in the county.   Continued masking and social distancing will be critical to preventing increases.

 

Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases has risen somewhat since mid-March but remains at relatively low levels.  A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.