Holmes County - December 17, 2020

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

Three significant reporting gaps during the second half of November create some instability in estimates during that period.  However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking close to 1.0 in early December.  Whether or not the recent decrease represents the beginning of a consistent trend remains to be seen.

Projected Incidence

Because of the significant November reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been and project future cases over a 14–day period based on a combination of these and actual case numbers.  While early December data appears reliable, the projections should be interpreted with some caution and in light of other indicators such as hospital utilization figures.  Case numbers are expected to remain constant throughout the end of December.  Continued vigilance with minimizing social contact and mask wearing is essential to preventing further increases.

Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to be declining since early November.  The presence of symptoms facilitates control efforts as those persons can be instructed to isolate and their close contacts to quarantine.