Holmes County - January 13, 2021

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

A series of reporting gaps/lags beginning in mid-November creates some instability in estimates during that period.  However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in late November,early December, and early January.   Whether the recent leveling off in Rt signals the beginning of a sustained elevation remains to be seen


Projected Incidence

Because of the significant reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and project future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers.  It is expected that daily incidence will trend slightly upward over the coming weeks.


Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained stable at a relatively low level through most of the second half of December.  It has shown a recent increase but has since leveled off.  A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts.