Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
A series of reporting gaps/lags beginning in mid-November creates some instability in estimates during that period. However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in late November and early December. Significant volatility in estimates remains but demonstrates an overall upward trend since mid-December. Whether the recent decrease in Rt signals the beginning of a sustained trend remains to be seen.
Because of the significant reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and project future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers. It is expected that daily incidence will trend upward.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained stable at a relatively low level since the second week of December but has slightly trended upward since the end of December. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts.