Lorain County - December 23, 2020

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

Three significant reporting gaps during the second half of November create some instability in estimates during that period.  However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in late November and early December.  Whether or not the recent decline will be sustained remains to be seen. 

Projected Incidence

Because of the significant November reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and project future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers.  While December data so far appears reliable, the projections should be interpreted with some caution and in light of other indicators such as hospital utilization figures.  Given continuation of current social mixing patterns, case numbers are expected to trend downward slightly, but still remain at high levels through the first week of January.

Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to continue on a gradual decline since early November.  The presence of symptoms facilitates control efforts.