Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
The most recent data suggests an Rt that remained low from early February through early March, at which time it spiked above 1.0. Rt has gradually decreased since early March, although it remains elevated relative to weeks prior.
Projected Incidence
Daily incidence appears most likely to decline in the coming two weeks, though considerable uncertainty exists. Continued masking and social distancing will be critical to preventing renewed increases in cases.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained at consistently low levels over the last 4 weeks, except for a spike above 0.5 in early March. The ratio has been decreasing since early March but remains elevated relative to the previous weeks. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.
