Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
A series of reporting gaps/lags beginning in mid-November creates some instability in estimates during that period. However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in late November and early December. Overall, Rt estimates for December are lower than those for November, but there has been an overall trend upward since mid-December.
Projected Incidence
Because of the significant reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and project future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers. It is expected most likely that daily incidence will trend upward in the coming weeks.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained stable at a relatively low level since mid-December. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts.
