Lucas County - January 6, 2021

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

A series of reporting gaps/lags beginning in mid-November creates some instability in estimates during that period.  However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in late November and early December.  Overall, Rt estimates for December are lower than those for November.  


Projected Incidence

Because of the significant reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and project future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers.  It is expected most likely that daily incidence will remain stable or trend slightly upward in the coming weeks. Because these projections assume continued social mixing at levels seen in recent weeks, a post-holiday decline in mixing could portend lower-than-projected case levels.  


Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained stable at a relatively low level since mid-December.  A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts.