Lucas County - March 15, 2021

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

The most recent data suggests an Rt that remained low from early February through early March, at which time it spiked above 1.0. Rt has gradually decreased since early March, although it appears to be rising.

Projected Incidence

Daily incidence appears most likely to continue to remain at similar levels in the coming two weeks, though considerable uncertainty exists.  Continued masking and social distancing will be critical to preventing renewed increases in cases.

Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained at consistently low levels over the last 6 weeks, but has shown a gradual upward trend in the most recent 3-4 weeks.  A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.