Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
A series of reporting gaps/lags beginning in mid-November creates some instability in estimates during that period. However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in late November and early December. Significant volatility in estimates remains. Overall, estimated Rt estimates for December are lower than those for November.
Projected Incidence
Because of the significant reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and project future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers. It is expected that daily incidence may trend slightly downward in the coming weeks.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have decreased from mid-December to early January, remaining stable since that point. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts.
