Summit County - January 13, 2021

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

A series of reporting gaps/lags beginning in mid-November creates some instability in estimates during that period.  However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in late November and early December.  Significant volatility in estimates remains with an overall trend upward since Mid-December, although levels remain lower than those in November and early December.  Whether the recent decrease in Rt signals the beginning of a sustained trend remains to be seen.

Projected Incidence

Because of the significant reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and project future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers.  It projected that daily case numbers will trend upward in the coming weeks. Continuing to adhere to masking, social distancing, and other mitigation measures remains crucial.

Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained stable at a relatively low level since the mid-December.  A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts.