Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)
The most recent data suggests an Rt below 1.0 in early February. Whether a recent downward trend will be sustained remains to be seen.
Daily incidence appears most likely to continue to decline in the coming two weeks, though considerable uncertainty exists. Continued masking and social distancing will be critical to maintaining downward momentum in new cases.
Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio
The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have remained largely stable at relatively low levels over the last 6 weeks. A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases facilitates mitigation efforts since symptomatic individuals usually isolate.