Williams County - January 13, 2021

Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)

A series of reporting gaps/lags beginning in late-December creates some instability in estimates during that period.  However, the most recent data suggests an Rt spiking well above 1.0 in late December and early January.  Overall, Rt estimates have undulated substantially. Whether or not the recent upward trend will continue remains to be seen

Projected Incidence

Because of the significant reporting gaps/lags described above, we modeled what the missing numbers most likely would have been during this period and projected future cases over a two-week period based on a combination of these and more recent actual case numbers.  It is expected that the daily incidence won’t change in the coming weeks

Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Ratio

Data issues again complicate estimation, but the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases appears to have trended upwards since the last week of December.  A low ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases acilitates mitigation efforts.